Here it is:
This is 311-227 Obama. McCain needs to grab 43 more electoral votes to win in this scenario. To do this, he probably needs to grab Pennsylvania and Ohio, then pull away one of the following smaller-population states: New Hampshire, Maine, Colorado or Nevada.
This is why it’s now tough (but not impossible) for McCain — he needs to be almost perfect. Obama, on the other hand, has numerous options. He still has a chance of picking off North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Missouri and Montana. On the other hand, of the states I have given him in this map, I think only Ohio and Nevada may be at risk as of today, and he’d still win with that scenario.
My advice on Election Night: Watch Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. McCain really needs all three, or he needs Virginia to flip red again to even have a prayer. If that doesn’t happen, Obama is a near-certain victor.
keeping my fingers crossed that you are right!
Your expert advice is to watch PA OH & FL? Isn’t that kind of like stating the obvious? No Republican has ever won without OH. FL seems to always be important and PA is one state where Hillary did well.
“McCain really needs to win all three.” Sorry if that escaped you.
Really, that wasn’t a bad prediction. So far I’ve only gotten Florida and Indiana wrong. I just *could not* make myself believe the Florida polls.