There have been surprises and non-surprises. The bad part is that almost all of the surprises are on the down side.

Back in February, I predicted the Nats would not win the National League East, might not make the playoffs and would have issues with hitting and the bullpen. I also urged caution about Stephen Strasburg and Adam Laroche. (I’m not a Soopah Genius: I also thought Dan Haren was a great pickup and that it was questionable whether Harper would take the next step up in his career.)

The hitting and bullpen issues have come to pass. Strasburg hasn’t been as bad as his record indicates but no one would confuse him with an elite pitcher right now. Laroche has been a straight-up dud so far but so have a number of other hitters. The biggest surprise to me — by far — has been the Nats’ poor defense, which I thought would absolutely be a strength.

Add these things together, toss in the toughest schedule month of the entire season and you get a sub-.500 ballclub. I don’t think it will stay that way — there almost certainly are better days ahead for this team — but barring a serious turnaround in some key areas, the Nats do not look like a post-season threat.