I feel much better about them than I did at the beginning of the season. If they can stay relatively healthy and figure out what to do about Ryan Zimmerman — he airmailed another throw last night from third — I now believe they can win the East. And they would go into the playoffs with two big postseason advantages: A fantastic pitching staff and a batting order with no real holes.
Milwaukee looks like the toughest team out there right now, although their record might be inflated just a notch by the relative weakness of the NL Central. They are a team of power hitters with occasionally spotty pitching, and that’s not necessarily a pathway to post-season success. Atlanta is tough to read; they have a lineup that should be terrifying and have underachieved until recently. That means they could destroy the NL in the second half or just be having One Of Those Years.
But the Nats…well, what do you do about them? They’re five deep in starters and have three in the bullpen who have all been successful short relievers, with Soriano and Storen being almost untouchable this year. Soriano’s looking really unflappable, too; I don’t worry about him flaking out with the playoffs on the line (actually, given Storen’s trial by fire of a couple of years ago, I don’t worry about him either any more; he got his hard lesson, has returned to form and now looks every bit the tough veteran).
These are the keys for the second half as I see them for the Nats:
1. The Overpublicized Two (or at least The Overpublicized One) need to step up. Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper both were heralded as once-in-a-generation players when they arrived at Nats Park — and early on, both lived up to that difficult hype. But since his arm injury, Strasburg has become merely a very good pitcher, perhaps among the National League’s top 15. The injury-prone Harper is merely a decent left fielder with (lately) little pop in his bat and a sadly growing rep (hyped out of proportion, I think) as having too much hat and not enough cattle.
The Nats have a lineup of consistently good hitters but no one who is really a monster. Given Harper’s hand injury, he might not be capable of evolving into that latter role this year. But if he did, the Nats would have the one thing they are missing on their offense.
Strasburg may not be capable at this point of taking that last difficult step up to the ultra-elite again, especially given the way a baseball season can wear down a pitcher — and frankly, if he echoes his performance so far this year, that might be good enough to help carry the Nats anyway. But if he can climb that tall final step, the entire team will be lifted. And if not, the Nats need to start treating the ice-veined Jordan Zimmermann as the ace he has become.
2. Create fear. Let’s not kid ourselves: The Nats have a bit of a rep as a soft team. They get beaten down by the best in the NL, particularly the Braves (who just plain Pwnfxn0 them) and the (not really best this year) Cardinals. They also eke out far too many scuffling victories over teams they should just mow down.
Teams need to be more afraid to face the Nationals. They definitely respect the Nats’ pitching right now, and overcoming the Nats’ current offensive lineup is a real strategic challenge, but that’s not the same thing as saying, “Holy crap, we have to play the Nats for the next three days.” Currently, the Nats are facing the Orioles, a team with a similar record. Which lineup creates fear? Which lineup looks like it can drag you into extra innings and then destroy you, like the O’s did Monday night?
3. Drop the modesty routine. Harper, who hasn’t earned the right, at times seems like the only Nat except Soriano and Jayson Werth who doesn’t project an aw-shucks-we’re-winning attitude. You can’t expect a personality transplant among people but you can try to make them understand that part of winning is to carry a winner’s arrogance, at least a bit. This is another step toward what I ultimately think the Nats need to do: Force their will on their opponents.
These are tall orders. I’m not sure the current lineup can get there, and that same lineup is going to start facing age issues in the next year or two and will start coming apart. But I believe this is what stands between the Nats and true greatness.